Many of these urban areas are rapidly growing and offer opportunities to adopt effective adaptation efforts to prevent future negative impacts of climate change. Bentz, B. J., and A. M. Jnsson, 2015: Chapter 13: Modeling bark beetle responses to climate change. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems.7 Rural communities tend to be more vulnerable to these changes due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10 In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5)11 suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from future climate changes in the United States. Wyman, M., S. Malone, T. Stein, and C. Johnson, 2012: Race and wildfire risk perceptions among rural forestland owners in north-central Florida. For example, certain insect species, including mosquitoes and tree-damaging beetles, are expected to move northward in response to climate change, which could affect human health and timber supplies.30,144,166,167,168,169,170,171,172 And some bird species, including certain ducks, are not expected to migrate as far south in response to milder winters,173 which could affect birding and hunting recreational opportunities. Maldonado, J. K., and K. Peterson, 2018: A community-based model for resettlement: Lessons from coastal Louisiana . The population living on the Island has fallen from 400 to 85 people. Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, Coastal Fisheries Division, Austin, TX, 20 pp. As a result, the ecological resources that people depend on for livelihood, protection, and well-being are increasingly at risk, and future generations can expect to experience and interact with natural systems that are much different than those that we see today. Rural communities are integral to the Southeasts cultural heritage and to the strong agricultural and forest products industries across the region. The previous record year was 2005 with a total of $214.8 billion (in 2017 dollars; $208.4 billion in 2015 dollars), which included the impacts of Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma.99, In 2017, Hurricane Irma was one of three major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States and territories, with the most significant impacts occurring in the Southeast region. Many southeastern cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change compared to cities in other regions, with expected impacts to infrastructure and human health (very likely, very high confidence). before making use of copyrighted material. B., and J. S. Clark, 2016: Multiyear drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in southeastern U.S. forests. Broadband adoption recommendations. Means, J. Costanza, and R. K. Peet, 2015: How global biodiversity hotspots may go unrecognized: Lessons from the North American Coastal Plain. Luedeling, E., E. H. Girvetz, M. A. Semenov, and P. H. Brown, 2011: Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. Isle de Jean Charles Tribe, 2017: Bienvenue, Aiokpanchi, Welcome to Isle de Jean Charles [web site]. Ecosystems in the Southeast span the transition zone between tropical and temperate climates. doi: Doyle, T. W., G. F. Girod, and M. A. | Gen. Tech. B. 8: Coastal, KM 1). While the hurricane directly damaged portions of the Southeast, the impacts could be felt around the country in the form of business interruptions (such as tourism), transportation and infrastructure damages (such as ports, roadways, and airports), increases in fuel costs, and $2.5 billion (in 2018 dollars) in total estimated crop losses,109 which had the potential to impact the cost of food and other products for all Americans. Rising, M. Delgado, S. Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, R. Muir-Wood, P. Wilson, M. Oppenheimer, K. Larsen, and T. Houser, 2017: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, 111 pp. These perigean tides, also known as king tides, occur twice a year and in many cities are causing what has been called nuisance or recurrent flooding (referred to herein as high tide flooding). Rural counties in the region generally have a diversified economy with a relatively low percentage being heavily dependent on one sector. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Drought Indexes. The Southeasts diverse natural systems, which provide many benefits to society, will be transformed by climate change. NWS, 2016: The Historic South Carolina Floods of October 15, 2015. 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Score, and L. Hilberg, 2017: State of climate adaptation in water resources management: Southeastern United States and U.S. Caribbean. This assessment builds on the above concerns described in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) and includes impacts to urban and rural landscapes as well as natural systems. Deep-water ports in Morehead City and Wilmington provide rural regions with additional market access. If he adds one additional crew member, he wont increase his landings. Manzello, D. P., 2015: Rapid recent warming of coral reefs in the Florida Keys. Land is related to climate, growing season, and soil types. Florida House of Representatives, 2018: Select Committee on Hurricane Response and Preparedness Final Report. Ozone concentrations would be expected to increase under higher temperatures; however, a variety of factors complicate projections (Ch. The goal: to restore the Rhine and Meuse systems flood plain and allow the restored natural river landscape to safely manage water flow in times of excess capacity. On the coastal plains of North Carolina, the main industries are Agriculture and defense. doi: Smee, D. L., J. Mazzotti, F. J., M. S. Cherkiss, M. Parry, J. Beauchamp, M. Rochford, B. Smith, K. Hart, and L. A. Brandt, 2016: Large reptiles and cold temperatures: Do extreme cold spells set distributional limits for tropical reptiles in Florida? U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 76 pp. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 40 (1): 97-118. Ebi, K. L., and J. Nealon, 2016: Dengue in a changing climate. Ayres, M. P., and M. J. Lombardero, 2000: Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. The remainder of the costs include $5 billion for infrastructure repairs and $1.5$2.0 billion for damage to the agricultural sector, also mainly in Florida. Changing climatic conditions (particularly, changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes) are, however, difficult to replicate via experimental manipulations; hence, ecological responses to future climate regimes have not been fully quantified for all species and ecosystems. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and J. F. Bruno, 2010: The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems. 1 U.S. Census Bureau. Its 187-mile (300-km) coastline consists of the. The precise impacts on cities are difficult to project. The economic status of rural America in the President Trump era and beyond. Solar farms, such as this one in Greene County, are part of a growing energy industry cluster in the rural coastal region. Learn term:fishing = industry in the coastal plain region with free interactive flashcards. Justice, and J. R. G. Townshend, 2013: High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. You are leaving The Fourth National Climate Assessment and will be redirected to a new site in 5 seconds. To sustain economic well-being, rural communities must continue to invest in the productivity of unique assets that support economic development. Today, fishing remains a major industry on the Coastal Plain. Increases in precipitation and shifts in wind trajectories may reduce future health impacts of ground level ozone in the Southeast,35 but warmer and drier autumns are expected to result in a lengthening of the period of ozone exposure.38 Warmer August temperatures in the Southeast from 1988 to 2011 were associated with increased human sensitivity to ground-level ozone.39. industries and county or municipal well fields look for these higher yielding bedrock wells. In Jacksonville, Florida, heavy rains were the major issue causing rivers to reach major or record flood stage and flooded some city streets up to 5 feet deep in water. WebIndustries found in the Coastal Plains include processing, manufacturing and marketing products, mainly seafood and wood. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, 37 pp. 5: Vector-borne diseases . In the future, rising temperatures and increases in the duration and intensity of drought are expected to increase wildfire occurrence and also reduce the effectiveness of prescribed fire practices.3,4,5,6. Parker, L. E., and J. T. Abatzoglou, 2016: Projected changes in cold hardiness zones and suitable overwinter ranges of perennial crops over the United States. Amekudzi, A., M. Crane, D. Springstead, D. Rose, and T. Batac, 2013: Transit climate change adaptation assessment for the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority. Plants collected from the wild may become less available as the ideal conditions for their growth shift to other areas (see Case Study Mountain Ramps). Mayor's Office of Sustainability, Atlanta, GA, 48 pp. Wiley, New York,. NOAA National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MD, various pp. Climate change is likely to modify the seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases in the Southeast.29 Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors (for example, pools of standing water in man-made structures, such as tires or buckets, are breeding grounds for some species of mosquitoes). 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).267,268 Although ramps are found all along the Appalachian mountain range, on Cherokee ancestral lands, they are already in their southernmost range. Mitchell, R. J., L. K. Kirkman, S. D. Pecot, C. A. Wilson, B. J. Palik, and L. R. Boring, 1999: Patterns and controls of ecosystem function in longleaf pine-wiregrass savannas. Ungerer, M. J., M. P. Ayres, and M. J. Lombardero, 1999: Climate and the northern distribution limits of Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Guo, H., C. Weaver, S. P. Charles, A. Whitt, S. Dastidar, P. D'Odorico, J. D. Fuentes, J. S. Kominoski, A. R. Armitage, and S. C. Pennings, 2017: Coastal regime shifts: Rapid responses of coastal wetlands to changes in mangrove cover. Clustering stems from private sector leadership and government partnerships that drive such outcomes as business and industrial parks. Financial capital will follow where labor and land quality are high. Historically, coastal ecosystems in the region have adjusted to sea level rise by vertical and horizontal movement across the landscape.125,129,200,201 As sea levels rise in the future, some coastal ecosystems will be submerged and converted to open water, and saltwater intrusion will allow salt-tolerant coastal ecosystems to move inland at the expense of upslope and upriver ecosystems.128,202,203,204,205,206,207,208 Where barriers are present (for example, levees and other coastal infrastructure), the potential for landward migration of natural systems will be reduced and certain coastal habitats will be lost (Ch. Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors, and the major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Southeastern forests represent almost 27% of the U.S. total262 and are the highest-valued crop in the region.7 The vast majority of forest is held in private hands, primarily corporate. Indirect impacts and costs are difficult to calculate and would add to the totals. Like urban centers, rural areas with significant manufacturing bases develop commerce hubs and advanced supply chains in specific industries to compete with producers globally. go.ncsu.edu/Blue-Economy. 17: Southeast and the Caribbean. Gutierrez, K., and C. LePrevost, 2016: Climate justice in rural southeastern United States: A review of climate change impacts and effects on human health. Although the agricultural output has been on the Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and G. Branstator, 2012: Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent US east-west differential of heat extremes. Winter air temperature extremes (for example, freezing and chilling events) constrain the northern limit of many tropical and subtropical species.138,139,140,141,142,143,144 Certain ecosystems in the region are located near thresholds where small changes in winter air temperature regimes can trigger comparatively large and abrupt landscape-scale ecological changes (in other words, ecological regime shifts).135,145 Reductions in the frequency and intensity of cold winter air temperature extremes can allow tropical and subtropical species to move northward and replace more temperate species. Smith, A. 2015, Tzung-May Fu et al. | Wahl, T., S. Jain, J. Bender, S. D. Meyers, and M. E. Luther, 2015: Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities. During the 2010s, the number of nights with minimum temperatures greater than 75F was nearly double the long-term average for 19011960 (Figure 19.1), while the length of the freeze-free season was nearly 1.5 weeks greater than any other period in the historical record (Figure 19.2). Census Bureau, 2017: Press kit: County and Metro Area Population . Synthesis Report. USDA-NASS, 2017: Statistics by State [web site]. WebThe Southeasts coastal plain and inland low-lying regions support a rapidly growing population, a tourism economy, critical industries, and important cultural resources that are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Climatic conditions are currently suitable for adult mosquitoes of the species Aedes aegypti, which can spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, across most of the Southeast from July through September (Figure 19.6), and cities in South Florida already have suitable conditions for year-round mosquito activity. Newman, S., M. Carroll, P. Jakes, and L. Higgins, 2014: Hurricanes and wildfires: Generic characteristics of community adaptive capacity. Cities across the Southeast are experiencing more and longer summer heat waves. Day, J. W., Jr., D. F. Boesch, E. J. Clairain, G. P. Kemp, S. B. Laska, W. J. Mitsch, K. Orth, H. Mashriqui, D. J. Reed, L. Shabman, C. A. Simenstad, B. J. Streever, R. R. Twilley, C. C. Watson, J. T. Wells, and D. F. Whigham, 2007: Restoration of the Mississippi Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Hall, J. Based on the subsequent authors meeting and input from NCA staff, the chapter outline and Key Messages were updated to reflect a risk-based framing in the context of a new set of Key Messages. 7: Ecosystems, Figure 7.4).179 Some problematic invasive species are expected to be favored by changing winters. The major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. Perica, S., D. Martin, S. Pavlovic, I. Roy, M. S. Laurent, C. Trypaluk, D. Unruh, M. Yekta, and Geoffrey Bonnin, 2013: Precipitation-Frequency Atlas of the United States. Duke, N. C., J. M. Kovacs, A. D. Griffiths, L. Preece, D. J. E. Hill, P. van Oosterzee, J. Mackenzie, H. S. Morning, and D. Burrows, 2017: Large-scale dieback of mangroves in Australia's Gulf of Carpentaria: A severe ecosystem response, coincidental with an unusually extreme weather event. Jacobson, E. R., D. G. Barker, T. M. Barker, R. Mauldin, M. L. Avery, R. Engeman, and S. Secor, 2012: Environmental temperatures, physiology and behavior limit the range expansion of invasive Burmese pythons in southeastern USA. Much larger changes are simulated by the late 21st century under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), which most closely tracks with our current consumption of fossil fuels. Saha, A. K., S. Saha, J. Sadle, J. Jiang, M. S. Ross, R. M. Price, L. S. L. O. Sternberg, and K. S. Wendelberger, 2011: Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests. Miller, R., D. Arthur, B. Barami, A. Breck, S. Costa, K. Lewis, K. McCoy, and E. Morrison, 2016: Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative: Baseline Assessment of the Transportation Assets & Overview of Economic Analyses Useful in Quantifying Impacts. Much of the affected region received between 10 and 26 inches of rain over the 4-day event, breaking many all-time precipitation records (Figure 19.12). Clustered development the close proximity of multiple businesses facilitate economies of scale, as well as spillovers in knowledge that result in innovation. By the end of the century under a higher scenario (RCP8.5), projections indicate approximately double the number of heavy rainfall events (2-day precipitation events with a 5-year return period) and a 21% increase in the amount of rain falling on the heaviest precipitation days (days with a 20-year return period).19,81 These projected increases would directly affect the vulnerability of the Southeasts coastal and low-lying areas. Kunkel, A. Lascurain, D. Marcy, M. Osland, and P. Schramm, 2018: Southeast. Rural communities do not develop in a vacuum. Throughout the southeastern United States, the impacts of sea level rise, increasing temperatures, extreme heat events, heavy precipitation, and decreased water availability continue to have numerous consequences for human health, the built environment, and the natural world. Ecological diversity in the Southeast is high,113,114,115,116,117 and southeastern ecosystems and landscapes provide many benefits to society. USGS Open-File Report 2016-1073. FTA Report No. The family-bound harvesting techniques are equally as important and make up part of the deeply held tribal lifeways >(Ch. Cartwright, J. M., and W. J. Wolfe, 2016: Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States: A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Maycock, and B.C. McNulty, S., S. Weiner, J. Moore Myers, H. Farahani, L. Fouladbash, D. Marshall, and R. F. Steele, 2015: Southeast regional climate hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Southeastern cities may be more vulnerable than cities in other regions of the United States due to the climate being more conducive to some vector-borne diseases, the presence of multiple large coastal cities at low elevation that are vulnerable to flooding and storms, and a rapidly growing urban and coastal population.22,295,296, Many city and county governments, utilities, and other government and service organizations have already begun to plan and prepare for the impacts of climate change (e.g., Gregg et al. Grace, C. L. Stagg, R. H. Day, S. B. Hartley, N. M. Enwright, A. S. From, M. L. McCoy, and J. L. McLeod, 2017: Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century. In addition to sea level rise, climate change is expected to increase the impacts of hurricanes; the high winds, storm surges, inundation, and salts that accompany hurricanes will have large ecological impacts to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems.209,210. doi: Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P. Sutton, S. van der Ploeg, S. J. Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber, and R. K. Turner, 2014: Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 2 pp. Office of Community Development, 2018: Isle de Jean Charles Resettlement Project. Sarofim, M. C., S. Saha, M. D. Hawkins, D. M. Mills, J. Hess, R. Horton, P. Kinney, J. Schwartz, and A. St. Juliana, 2016: Ch. Embedded in these land- and seascapes is a rich cultural history developed over generations by the many communities that call this region home. Climate change tends to compound existing vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing inequities. Abatzoglou, J. T., and A. P. Williams, 2016: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Sea level rise is contributing to increased coastal flooding in the Southeast, and high tide flooding already poses daily risks to businesses, neighborhoods, infrastructure, transportation, and ecosystems in the region.1,2 There have been numerous instances of intense rainfall events that have had devastating impacts on inland communities in recent years. State of Louisiana, . Implementation of these strategies has already resulted in a reduction in water consumption in the city of Atlanta, relieving strain on the water utility and increasing resilience.50. AJC Staff, 2017: Gov. Flooding events are highly variable in both space and time. Rising sea levels and potential changes in hurricane intensity are aspects of climate change that are expected to have a tremendous effect on coastal ecosystems in the Southeast (Ch. 2017,103 Box 9.1). WebThe North Carolina Coastal Federation is working with federal, state and local leaders, economic developers, private businesses and coastal residents to create and implement If you place a premium on safety and performance, CPT is the

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