(Recommended: 5 Russian Weapons of War NATO Should Fear). Those concerns have been echoed by Britain's most senior military officer. "The will" was qualified as "a square deal for Poland",[3] which probably meant enforcing the recently-signed Yalta Agreement. The plans were never implemented. [49], In a 1987 article in the Historische Zeitschrift journal, the German historian Klaus Hildebrand argued that both Hitler and Stalin had separately planned to attack each other in 1941. The thesis by Suvorov that Stalin had planned to attack Nazi Germany in 1941 was rejected by a number of historians, such as Antony Beevor, Gabriel Gorodetsky, David Glantz and Dmitri Volkogonov and was partially supported by Valeri Danilov, Joachim Hoffmann, Mikhail Meltyukhov, and Vladimir Nevezhin. WebRussia began its invasion of Ukraine last week on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The jury is still out," he said. Video, The secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure. Marina Novikova was found guilty on Friday of spreading false information about the Russian army. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. " ", 19391941 . Copyright 2023 Center for the National Interest All Rights Reserved, 5 Russian Weapons of War NATO Should Fear, 5 Russian Weapons of War America Should Fear, The U.S. Army's 5 Most Lethal Weapons of War, The U.S. Marines' 5 Most Lethal Weapons of War, 5 Ways the Soviet Union Could Have Won the Cold War, How America and Russia Could Start a Nuclear War. WebPresident Joe Biden on Friday, citing American intelligence, said he was convinced Russian president Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine and that "Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere," he said. These were decidedly offensive nature and envisioned a blitzkrieg-type assault that allowed the Warsaw Pact to conquer most of Western Europe in a matter of days. The following table is based on Allied estimates at the time of the planning of Operation Unthinkable. WebThe first will be a new front line of conflict in Central Europe. (Recommended: 5 Russian Weapons of War America Should Fear). The alliance announced Tuesday that Turkeys president, Recep Tayyip Erdoan, had dropped his opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, despite earlier reservations that they harbored individuals that were linked to groups Turkey considers terrorists. (modern), Johnson: Russia invasion would pose 'extreme danger to the world' video, What exactly does Putin want in Ukraine? [3] (The Soviet Union is referred to as "Russia" throughout the document, a metonym that was common in the West throughout the Cold War.). They fear that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. These reveal that, while Stalin was alive and through the 1950s, the Warsaw Pact maintained an almost entirely defensive posture aimed at protecting member states from a Western invasion. .12(1). If a quick success could not be obtained before the beginning of winter, the assessment was that the Allies would be committed to a protracted total war. (Recommended: The U.S. Army's 5 Most Lethal Weapons of War). WebThe larger nuclear weapons would be used to destroy major cities in Western Europe, including Hamburg, Bonn, Munich and Hannover in West Germany; Rotterdam, Utrecht One plan assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany to impose "the will of the United States and British Empire"[2] on the Soviets. VideoThe secret mine that hid the Nazis' stolen treasure, LGBT troops take love for Eurovision to front line, Why an Indian comedian is challenging fake news rules. Leaders of NATO member countries, including the United States, are cheering the decision to welcome Finland and Sweden into the alliance Wednesday as a bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its eighth day and continues to intensify. In an interview with the BBC after his speech at the conference, which was aired on Sunday morning, Johnson said Russias plan was to launch the biggest war in Europe since 1945 with an invasion of Ukraine through the eastern region of Donbas and from Belarus in the north, with soldiers encircling the capital of Kyiv. The document appears to have been drawn up to thwart Moldovas tilt to the West, which includes closer relations with NATO and an application to join the European Union. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin briefed Ukrainian Minister of Defense Oleksii Reznikov Wednesday on the United States military aid to the country, which in the last several days got a bump of $450 million worth of multiple launch rocket systems and artillery ammunition. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. One of Suvorov's pieces of evidence favoring the theory of an impending Soviet attack was his claim regarding the maps and phrasebooks issued to Soviet troops. 66, No. Facing multiple crises aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine, the impoverished former Soviet republic of 2.6 million people wedged between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is already wrestling with an energy crisis prompted by supply cuts from Russia's targeting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and tensions have flared up due to missile overflights connected to the war in Ukraine. Source: International Affairs, Vol. . WebA Russian invasion of Ukraine would set off a major national security crisis for Europe and the Biden administration, which has declared an ironclad commitment to Ukraines Russian forces are currently waging battles over cities in eastern Ukraine, to be sure. Reuters provides business, financial, national and international news to professionals via desktop terminals, the world's media organizations, industry events and directly to consumers. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Vladimir Putin is planning the best way to attack the UK by sending spy ships to map infrastructure on the British coast, British MP says. [4][1] It has been strongly rejected by most historians[5][6][7] and Icebreaker is generally considered to be an "anti-Soviet tract" in Western countries. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. Soon after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February last year, the then-commander of Russias Central Military Region, Maj. Gen. Rustam Minnekaev, said that one aim of the so-called special military operation was to establish a corridor through southern Ukraine to the Transnistria region. Russia has accused Ukraine of planning to invade and take over Transnistria, which borders southwestern Ukraine. Part of Sweden and Finlands interest in joining NATO is to protect against Russia invading their countries unprovoked. The party is led by Ilan Shor, a businessman with links to Russia who is accused of stealing billions of dollars from Moldovan banks in 2014. "We could have a very large number of refugees, deaths could reasonably be expected to be high as would destruction within Ukraine," he said. Yet, to an even greater extent than World War I, the outcome of World War II seemed to merely plant the seeds for another great power conflict. A man holds Moldovan national flag as special police officers patrol a street near a polling station during the second round of Moldova's presidential election in the town of Varnita at Moldova - Transnistrian border on November 15, 2020, amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. In response to an instruction by Churchill of 10 June 1945, a follow-up report was written on "what measures would be required to ensure the security of the British Isles in the event of war with Russia in the near future". The USSR had yet to launch its attack on Japanese forces and so one of the assumptions in the report was that the Soviets would instead ally with Japan if the Western Allies commenced hostilities. Today Im announcing that the United States will enhance our force posture in Europe and respond to the changing security environment as well as strengthening our collective security, Biden said. The planners decided that without American help, the British would probably fail. The five-page document is separated into multiple headings with short-, medium- and long-term aims. [27] However, according to Michael Jabara Carley, that speech could be equally interpreted as a deliberate attempt to discourage the Germans from launching an invasion.[28]. Russian soldiers head home on foot en masse [REPORT]Putin left reeling as key ally Belarus refuses to join war [INSIGHT]Lavrov issues chilling warning to West over nuclear war[ANALYSIS]. WebThe White House has estimated that Russias military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the last five months in fighting against Ukraine in the Bakhmut region. Cleverly announced further financial support for Moldova to cope with high energy prices. Other historians who support that thesis are Vladimir Nevezhin, Boris Sokolov, Valeri Danilov and Joachim Hoffmann. 66, No. He said the security situation in Europe was without precedent since the fall of the Iron Curtain. video explainer. Russian officials have frequently stressed the importance of a Moscow-friendly Moldovan government as well as the significance of the Transnistria region. WebAccording to Suvorov, there were supposed to be three Five-Year Plan phases that would prepare the Soviet Union for war. In what was known as the 'Seven Days to the River Rhine' exercise, the military simulation depicted the Soviet bloc's vision of a seven-day nuclear war between NATO and Warsaw Pact forces. All rights reserved. In 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, NATO responded by suspending cooperation with Russia and boosting Kyivs defensive capabilities. 1945 plan for war between Western Allies and Soviet Union. [54] Although the USSR attacked Finland, no documents have been found to date which would indicate 26 November 1939 as the assumed date for the beginning of provocations or 30 November as the date of the planned Soviet assault. The answer isall of them.. // . [21], Source: Mikhail Meltyukhov Stalin's Missed Chance table 43,45,46,47,[22], Supporters of the theory also refer to various facts, such as the publication of Georgy Zhukov's proposal of 15 May 1941,[23] which called for a Soviet strike against Germany, to support their position. By the ninth day of the conflict the Czechoslovak Army, perhaps with some Soviet backing, was supposed to conquer Lyons in southern France. A number of Italian cities would be targeted as well. Kshyk believe to be erroneous the notion that Stalin was preparing to launch an offensive against Germany in the summer of 1941. [50] He considered that the news of Red Army concentrations near the border had led to Hitler engaging in a Flucht nach vorn ("flight forward"), a response to a danger by charging on, rather than retreating:[50] "Independently, the National Socialist program of conquest met the equally far-reaching war-aims program which Stalin had drawn up in 1940 at the latest". See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. If the Soviets had indeed known that the Western Allies were planning a possible attack, the element of surprise would have been lost before operations against the Soviets even began and further reduce the chances of Operation Unthinkable succeeding. Speaking to journalists, including the BBC, the senior intelligence official, who asked not to be named, said: "Let's not be blind. Comrade Stalin's Three Plans -Mark Solonin's article on his personal website, Treaty on the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union, Russian Revolution, Russian Civil War, PolishSoviet War, Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Alliance, Aggravation of class struggle under socialism, Backwardness brings on beatings by others, 1906 Bolshevik raid on the Tsarevich Giorgi, National delimitation in the Soviet Union, Demolition of Cathedral of Christ the Saviour, Case of Trotskyist Anti-Soviet Military Organization, Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia, Economic Problems of Socialism in the USSR, On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences, List of awards and honours bestowed upon Joseph Stalin, Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, GermanSoviet military parade in Brest-Litovsk, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Soviet_offensive_plans_controversy&oldid=1149553340, Military history of the Soviet Union during World War II, Articles containing Russian-language text, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from November 2010, Wikipedia articles needing factual verification from July 2021, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, 22nd, 20th, 21st, 19th, 16th, 24th, 28th Armies, 77 / 5 / 2, The Soviet Union was intrinsically unstable. The goal was to break through NATOs frontlines, and advance swiftly into the depth of his defense and move into operational space. In order to achieve these rapid initial successes, the Soviet Union aimed to achieve a troop advantage of 5:1 or 6:1 along the main points of attack. : . Key Points. According to Suvorov's interpretation of the, The Soviet Union made extensive preparations for a future war of aggression during the 1920s and 1930s. No fewer than two nuclear weapons would have been used to destroy Copenhagen, and five nuclear weapons in total would have been unleashed on Denmark as well. [16], Another piece of evidence is Stalin's speech of 5 May 1941 to graduating military cadets. "To think war could be contained to one nation would be foolish," they added. The hypothetical date for the start of the Allied invasion of Soviet-held Europe was scheduled for 1 July 1945, four days before the United Kingdom general elections. Michael Jabara Carley. Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, told Sky News: There should be no doubt on the resolve of the UK, on a cross-party basis, and the resolve of Nato across the alliance.. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe. (Recommended: How America and Russia Could Start a Nuclear War). "A full-scale genocide of the Ukrainian people is under way.". For the United States and its allies, the use of massive amounts of nuclear weapons was more or less the extent of the fighting, given the extensive destruction it would cause. In the archived military document, red mushroom clouds were drawn over Western Europe and indicated where Soviet nuclear weapon strikes would hit. [63], Several politicians have also made claims similar to Suvorov's. "It will not work - Russia has the might to put all of our brash enemies in their place," Medvedev said. Mr Sikorski, who was appointed in 2005 when the Law and Justice party won a surprise victory, after pledging to cleanse the country of its communist past, added: "This map is a moving and shattering personal experience. NATO members and the Biden administration announced a series of steps this week that they think will work to prevent Russia from taking brash and disastrous action against other European nations. This view had also been advanced by former German generals, Icebreaker: Who Started the Second World War, GermanySoviet Union relations before 1941, Stalin's alleged speech of 19 August 1939, "Did Stalin Plan to Attack Hitler in 1941? The traditional metrics of warfightingnamely, defeating the enemys forces and occupying his territory would determine the outcome of the war. Why Moldova fears it could be next for Putin. The plan includes making Moldova dependent on imports of Russian gas and stirring up social conflict, as well as trying to block Moldovas efforts to gain influence in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria, where some 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed. [40] The historian Cynthia A. Roberts is even more categorical and claims that Suvorov's writings have "virtually no evidentiary base". People will draw the false conclusion that might is right and that aggression pays, and so what weve got to ensure is that it doesnt pay off, and even if a lightning war is initially successful, that over time, through our economic might, through all the pressure we can bring, we make sure that this this venture does not succeed.. Chris Bellamy. However, he urged ministers to take a tougher approach to the City of London being used as a centre for Russian kleptocrats and money laundering. The larger nuclear weapons would be used to destroy major cities in Western Europe, including Hamburg, Bonn, Munich and Hannover in West Germany; Rotterdam, Utrecht and Amsterdam in the Netherlands; and Antwerp and Brussels in Belgium. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced. The debate began in the late 1980s when Viktor Suvorov published a journal article and later the book Icebreaker in which he claimed that Stalin had seen the outbreak of war in Western Europe as an opportunity to spread communist revolutions throughout the continent, and that the Soviet military was being deployed for an imminent attack at the time of the German invasion. WebApparently, Ukraine is not the only country Russia has been plotting to invade in recent years. .. One of Shors leaders, Marina Tauber, told CNNs Swedish affiliate Expressen that the party was demanding that the government covered peoples energy bills for the winter months. [citation needed] If the plans of the operation had been transmitted to Moscow by the Cambridge Five, that would explain the sudden orders to regroup and prepare for defence; however, it is just as possible that the decision was caused by Soviet mistrust of the Western Allies. This specific law on mobilization allowed the Red Army to increase its army of 1,871,600 men in 1939 to 5,081,000 in the spring of 1941 under secrecy to avoid alarming the rest of the world. High voltage electricity transmission towers at at an electrical near apartment blocks in Chisinau, Moldova, on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2022. The Soviets were unable to organize defenses. It was obtained and first disclosed by a consortium of media, including VSquare and Frontstory, RISE Moldova, Expressen in Sweden, the Dossier Centre for Investigative Journalism, Yahoo News and Delfi. A man holds Moldovan national flag as special police officers patrol a street near a polling station during the second round of Moldova's presidential election in the town of Varnita. The US and Nato have made clear they want a dialogue with Russia to avoid conflict, and Moscow wants dialogue to continue, too. Did you encounter any technical issues? CNN has seen the full document, which appears to have been written in 2021 by the FSBs Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation. A. Polyakov, and Dmitri Volkogonov, analyzed newly-available evidence to demonstrate that Soviet forces were certainly not ready for the attack. After Russian forces on Feb. 27, 2014 took control of Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and was transferred to Ukraine in Soviet times, a referendum on joining Russia was held on March 16. (Photo by Elena COVALENCO / AFP) (Photo by ELENA COVALENCO/AFP via Getty Images). The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. The first one was to be focused on collectivisation, the Web5:50 a.m. The assessment, signed by the Chief of Army Staff on 9 June 1945, concluded: "It would be beyond our power to win a quick but limited success and we would be committed to a protracted war against heavy odds". Securing this and the areas before it was crucial in preventing the US, Canada and the UK from landing reinforcements for NATO in northern Europe. He argued that Soviet ground forces were well-organized and mobilized en masse along the GermanSoviet frontier for a Soviet invasion of Europe slated for Sunday, 6 July 1941 but were unprepared to defend their own territory. [8] That represented almost half of the approximately 100 divisions available to the British, American and Canadian headquarters at that time.[6]. For the United States, this meant seeking in vain to offset the Soviet Unions numerical advantages without resorting to nuclear weapons early in a conflict. The senior Western intelligence official described it as a "steady" rather than dramatic. This is Russia's real goal.. The discussion resulted in dozens of serious studies at least partially supporting Suvorov's thesis, which were usually better documented than Suvorov's. Including 3,480 US, 2,370 Commonwealth, and 198 Polish. ,2835; : . When the Labour Party acquired power by the 1945 general election, it ignored the draft plan. Unlike in the West, Soviet war planners saw nuclear weapons as only the start of a conflict, not its end. The Historiographical Controversy Surrounding the Origins of the Nazi-Soviet War", https://militaryhistorynow.com/2021/05/09/stalins-gambit-did-the-soviets-plan-for-a-1941-offensive-war-against-nazi-germany/, "Stalin by przekonany, e Hitler nie powtrzy bdu Napoleona". [46], A Soviet migr, the historian Alexandr Nekrich, while extremely critical of Stalin in other contexts, also rejected Suvorov's ideas as unsubstantiated and contrary to Stalin's broader policy. He was later convicted of fraud but has denied any wrongdoing. As per the plan, Soviet Russia hoped to have secured Denmark within a week, and the Atlantic Ocean within 14 days of the start of the fighting. [42] Similarly, Suvorov cited the development of the KT/Antonov A-40 "flying tank" as evidence of Stalin's aggressive plans, but his critics say that development of that tank was started only in December 1941. "[45] However, he also noted that "it cannot be excluded that Stalin may have been considering a preventive attack in the winter of 1941 or more probably in 1942". Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. April 26, 2023. If Russia initiates a scenario of any kind it will also initiate action against Nato members". Or the Baltic countries? - A couple of thousands of protesters gathered in downtown Chisinau answering the call made by "SOR" Party, as tension run high in pro-Western Moldova after allegations of Moscow's attempts to destabilise the country came to light last week. Opinion: Moldova isn't on the front page, but it could be in Putin's crosshairs. Western intelligence officials say the Russian strategy is in itself not surprising, but it may have been accelerated as the Moldovan government intensifies efforts to cooperate more closely with the US and European states. It wants to absorb city after city, all of us, and then all in Europe, whom the Russian leadership considers its property, not independent states, Zelensky said. Regardless, nuclear weapons were a central part of the Soviet Unions strategy to conquer all of Western Europe. He told Times Radio it wont just be the people of Ukraine but people in other eastern European countries were watching about whats going on here. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. The West says claims it wants to rip Russia apart are fiction. Gas tariffs have shot up over the past year as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. The differences between them were slight, all documents (including operational maps signed by the Deputy Chief of General Staff of the Red Army) are the plans for the invasion with depth offensive 300km. He said as early as 1925 that "Struggles, conflicts and wars among our enemies areour great allyand the greatest supporter of our government and our revolution" and "If a war does break out, we will not sit with folded arms we will have to take the field, but we will be, World War II was initiated by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, which became co-belligerents after signing the, Stalin planned to attack Nazi Germany from the rear in July 1941, only a few weeks after the date on which the, Hitler's intelligence identified the USSR's preparations to attack Germany. That allowed Stalin to provide the expansive build-up of the Red Army. White House national Or Poland? 8. One such area was the Julian March (an area of Southeastern Europe that is now divided among Croatia, Slovenia and Italy), and on 30 August 1946, informal discussions occurred between the British and the American chiefs of staff concerning how such a conflict could develop and the best strategy for conducting a European war. For example, he pointed out that the Soviet Union was outfitting large numbers of paratroopers and actually prepared to field entire parachute armies, and he stated that paratroopers are suitable only for offensive action, which the Soviet military doctrine of the time recognised. .: , , 2007, pp. Based on this material, Hoffmann argues that the Soviet Union was making final preparations for its own attack when the Wehrmacht struck. Blue mushroom clouds, representing the expected NATO nuclear strikes, were drawn over cities in the eastern bloc, including Warsaw and the then-Czechoslovakian capital, Prague. In addition to the plan, 1,700 Warsaw Pact papers were also released from Poland's military archive. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. Specifically, they intended to invade West Germany, Denmark, The Netherlands and Belgium. [2] This view had also been advanced by former German generals following the war. Notable examples include collections of documents by L.E. The Soviet offensive plans controversy was a debate among historians in the late 20th and early 21st centuries as to whether Joseph Stalin had planned to launch an attack against Nazi Germany in the summer of 1941. The materials show that no battles were played out on the Soviet soil. hes totally wrong, hes going to get more Nato.. He said: Few societies understand the underhand tactics of Russian malign activity more than Moldova and Georgia, adding that the UK will not stand idly by while Moscow blatantly undermines their democracy, sovereignty and territorial integrity.. Russian President Vladimir Putin is being watched closely by experts and officials. [18] Offensive interpretations of Stalin's prewar planning are also supported by the Sovietologist Robert C. Tucker and by Pavel N. Thus, along with the liberal use of nuclear weapons, the Soviet Union and its Warsaw allies planned to launch a massive blitzkrieg aimed at taking over most of Western Europe. Since nuclear arms considerably shortened the stages of war, according to the Eastern logic, it became necessary to try to gain the decisive initiative with a powerful strike against enemy forces, making use of the moment of surprise.. As of 2021 most of these have not been translated into English. But the official noted there had been a combination of sharp bellicose rhetoric from Moscow, accusations of being provoked by Ukraine and Nato, a lack of transparency, and a worrying track record, including the annexation of Crimea in 2014. [7], The initial primary goal of the operation was declared as "to impose upon Russia the will of the United States and the British Empire. According to Suvorov, there were supposed to be three, Stalin escalated tensions in Europe by providing a combination of economic and military support to, According to Suvorov and others, Stalin always planned to exploit military conflict between the capitalist countries to his advantage. Soviet war plans called for dropping two 500 kiloton nuclear weapons on Vienna. Educate them in the spirit of attack". Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. Military topographic maps, unlike other military supplies, are strictly local and cannot be used elsewhere than in the intended operational area. Until now, Russian forces could deploy only as far as Ukraines eastern border, several hundred miles from Poland Europes military spending grew at a record pace in 2022,
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